World Cup Bids

Did you know that tomorrow (Thursday, December 2), a FIFA committee in Zurich will decide the host nations of both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups? Probably not. This news just caught me by surprise. As I loved speculating on the locations of the Olympics, I wanted to write something about the World Cup. However, not that I know very much about the inner workings of the IOC, but I know even less about FIFA. Nonetheless, I can still speculate. For some quick history, 2018 and 2022 will be the 21st and 22nd World Cups respectively, with the first one taking place in 1930. The Cup will be held in Brazil in 2014 and of course just occurred in South Africa. Europe and South America have the primary hosts, with a few Cups in North America and one each in Asia and Africa.

2018

The 2018 World Cup will be in Europe. That much we know, because the only bids now are England, Russia, Belgium/Netherlands and Spain/Portugal. Yes those last two are joint bids. If you recall, the 2002 World Cup was the only previous joint bid in history, taking place in South Korea and Japan. Both these joint bids make better sense, as none of these nations are separated by open sea and have closer linguistic and cultural ties than South Korea and Japan. Belgium and Netherlands have even successfully joint held Eurocup 2000. Some things to be aware of here are that all host nations automatically qualify, so with the joint bids, this would mean two automatic bids. This is probably less of an issue with Spain/Portugal, two very strong sides, and more with Belgium, which has not qualified for the last two World Cups. England is a very strong candidate here, as the birthplace of modern football has not held the Cup since it won in 1966. I think Russia though has a very attractive offer here though, as the Cup has never really approached Eastern Europe or Central Asia. Fourteen geographically diverse Russian cities (though none in the far east) are prepared to host games. Spain of course won the last World Cup, which I imagine can only help their bid. In addition, the Netherlands/Belgium bid has plans for some sort of mass transit bicycle distribution, which I think is quite cool.

Prediction: Russia. Globalizing football by bringing the World Cup to new places has been a big theme for FIFA in this millennium. Russia is a logical new choice without the infrastructure concerns of South Africa or even Brazil.

2022

The bids are South Korea, United States, Japan, Australia and Qatar. The latter two would both be first time hosts which always helps. South Korea and Japan are recent hosts, which always hurts, enough to even rule them out. The United States always has a strong bid, and their message this time, delivered by former President Bill Clinton was diversity. No matter who is represented in the finals, the stadium could be filled by those nations' supporters. The 1994 World Cup was an attendance bonanza though its lasting effects on promoting soccer in the US is debatable. Nevertheless, the infrastructure is undeniably present. Qatar is a very interesting choice. The FIFA president has already stated that he wants to bring the Cup to the Arabic world. Qatar successfully hosted the 2006 Asian Games and may be the most experienced Arab nation in hosting large events. Doha was even a bid for the 2016 Olympic Games although their desire to move the events to October was shot down. There are no plans to move the World Cup out of the traditional June and July slot, which is a problem because temperatures reach over 40 degrees Celsius in summertime Qatar. In response, the nation has stated it will show off its oil wealth and unveil air-conditioned stadiums. So yeah there's a lot to take in right there - Qatar's bid has the most extreme positives and negatives. (An additional Qatar negative: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtHIa9AHgLk) The Australian bid is also very interesting. FIFA does want to bring the Cup to Oceania and the infrastructure and passion seem to be in place in Australia. It is a very remote country which makes international travel difficult.

Prediction: Australia. I think it'd be tough for Qatar to overcome all the doubts and I don't see international clamor to bring the Cup back to the States. Australia would be just different enough to be cool.